THIS is the latest thread from Simon Wright and GillsRob whose strategy on betting on corners has proved popular.
If you have any queries about what they are doing post them as a comment at the end of this article – and watch out for their daily tips on here or the main Mr Fixit thread.
The boys haven’t been tipping much recently but that’s to be expected until the season starts back.
THE BACKGROUND
Firstly, it’s important to point out we are not professional gamblers following our tips won’t guarantee a profit. We are regular punters who share a passion to try to build a system that delivers a high win ratio to bets within a strategy to maximise profits and reduce risks.
We have spent the last year trialling many systems and markets from over 2.5 goals to both teams to score to team goals. However, we were unable to forge a system that produced a win rate over 60%.
After a few months we realised one of the trials we were running was doing particularly well and decided to focus on that.
This was Asian Total Corners. Using corner, formation and some pitch data we were able to produce a decent system. We spent the next few months refining the system and changing the weightings we placed on certain stats to increase the number of winners we had to achieve our target of 70%.
In late 2014 we believed we had a system that worked and started to bet for real on these games. We found our picks were delivering 60%-70% winners consistently and started to show profit.
Our final refinement was in March when we reviewed our results to help narrow down the most successful lines we had used through Bet365. Following the test we decided to drop six lines from both the over and under market and only run with the remaining six, which are Over 10.5, 11 and 11.5 and Under 9, 9.5 and 10.
I hope that clarifies what our tips are and why. However, and we feel this is really important. Our 70% success rate is calculated over a calendar month, therefore there are individual days and weeks which are loss making.
ORIGINAL STAKING PLAN
Aside from the betting lines the most important area of our strategy is the stake structure. We advise you to divide your bank by 12. This would then be your initial stake (which will allow you to make 12 bets).
The reason we suggest 12 is twofold. Firstly, as I said we do have losses. So if your first three bets are losers you need to have enough bank left to recover from this. The way we advise you count is simply starting from 0. If your first bet wins you move to +1 and if it loses then you move to -1.
Also you need to consider how many bets you place at once and have to have the bank to cover this. On a Saturday at 3pm with a full card we sometimes can have up to eight bets. The figure 12 comes from our maximum number of bets at any one time being 8 and also our maximum minus position is -3.
The risk you need to be aware of is if you are on -3 and you place 8 bets at the same time your bank effectively is more or less 0. So, back to your stake and I asked you to split your bank by 12, so assuming you have a bank of £120 your bet would be £10 per tip.
You are going to count the winners as +1 and the losers as -1 and keep doing that over and over and over again. With a win ratio of 70% you will slowly see it go up. Your aim is to get to about +12. Now I say this is your aim as if our tips were all evens, this would mean at +12 you bank is doubled. In reality the odds on our tips range from 1.7-2.0.
Therefore you actual aim is not +12 but just when you bank is doubled. In the example we are using, from an initial £120 bank and £10 stake, you are looking to reach £240. When this happens you can double your stake and your bank divided by 12 would be £20.
You can carry on doing this over and over or you can raise your stake by £10 every time you achieve the correct bank to do so, so for instance when you reach £360 move to £30 stake, when you reach £480 move to £40 stake and when you reach £600 move to £50 stake.
It is at this point when the strategy becomes most profitable and you then will want to plan when to begin to draw profits (after all that’s the whole point) but always reverting back to the £600 baseline and repeating the process.
ALTERNATIVE STAKING PLAN
The other way you can stake, which is a lot easier to manage, is every Monday take your bank and divide it by 12 and that’s your stake for the week. This will deliver faster growth but has greater risk if our tips provide a losing week.
Anything more regular may make it difficult to track the strategy then possibly have an adverse effect on the overall performance.
CLOSING NOTES
We only post our selections on Mr Fixit’s main forum. Due to busy work and family lives we share the workload equally. Look out for either of us, Simon Wright or GillsRob, usually about 10.30pm for the following day (and including any overnight). This ensures we all get the best odds and also allows plenty of time before the game.
Occasionally we may add one or two in the morning, usually before 10am. Additionally, we do endeavour to have at least one of us available on the site during the day, especially when bets are running.
Finally, there are days when nothing meets criteria, so it is a no bet day. We have no plans to make ad hoc bets in these situations.
I hope that provides the clarification you are all looking for. This system is not thrill betting. It is methodical and at times you will go a whole week and only end up at +1) which is just like winning one evens bet. It’s not really for the gung-ho gambler out for fun.
However, if your motivation is purely financial and you have the patience and discipline we believe our picks and staking plan could suit you. For others who do not wish to deposit funds anymore this also could be a good system.
All the best,
Simon & Rob
